Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Theo Johnson, TE Penn State - Dynasty League Football (2024)

Theo Johnson did next to nothing in the Penn State box scores over the past four seasons. But, he was the talk of the town in Indianapolis after a head-turning performance at the NFL Combine. If you only looked at the Combine numbers, Johnson would be the best prospect in this class, but there is much more to a prospect than their height and weight. Can he develop at the NFL level to become a threat in the passing game?

The Stats

Images courtesy of Sports Reference.

Johnson hails from north of the border, born in Winnipeg and raised outside of Toronto. Johnson’s mother Amy and her six boys moved to Windsor, Ontario, where he attended Holy Names Catholic High School. As a wide receiver for the team’s Canadian rules football team, he led the team to back-to-back regional championships and was named All-Canada both years.

Despite coming from Canada, Johnson earned a four-star recruit rating thanks to a stellar performance at the “Best of the Midwest” recruiting camp. He was recruited as a tight end and earned offers to some of the top college football programs in the country. He ended up choosing to attend Penn State over his other finalists: Georgia, Iowa, and Michigan.

It was a long road to Happy Valley for Johnson, but it was an even longer road to a starting job. He played behind Brenton Strange for most of his first three seasons. In that time, he combined for 31 games played, 43 receptions, 597 yards and five touchdowns.

It’s worth noting that Johnson was charged with simple assault after an incident at a Penn State fraternity in February after this season. A victim suffered a concussion after Johnson allegedly threw a punch after being asked to leave the fraternity house. He was sentenced to six months in an intervention program for first-time offenders.

His senior year was his most productive season, but he was still splitting time at tight end with Tyler Warren. Warren and Johnson each had 34 receptions and seven receiving touchdowns, but Warren had more yards with 422 compared to Johnson’s 341. He started all 13 games for the Nittany Lions and earned an Honorable Mention for the All-Big Ten team.

Over 37 college games, nothing Johnson did jumps out on paper. His career-high in receptions is six in a game and he topped out at 75 receiving yards. Even in his senior season, he had one game with more than four catches, and it was only six against Iowa. Despite the lack of production, it’s good to see that he took a step forward year-over-year. Coming out of Canada, there was a steep learning curve for Johnson to overcome. Not only was he transitioning from wide receiver to tight end, but he also had to adjust to American Football after playing Canadian Football his whole life. The stats are not going to be the reason why Johnson is drafted, but the rest of his profile is impressive.

The Film

Johnson is number 84 in navy blue in this video. For more film, check out his DLF Profile.

It’s important to remember when analyzing the film with Johnson that he is still a work in progress. He’s raw and relatively new to the position. An NFL team could see a blank canvas that they can mold into the type of player they want to build from.

Johnson stands out on film, mostly because of his combination of size and speed, but that is about all that stands out. Pretty much everything else he does is average to below average at best.

He runs his best routes against man, where he can accelerate away from linebackers and defensive backs tasked with covering him. He looks uncomfortable against zone coverage, unable to recognize how to get open. His route running is smooth, but he didn’t run a full route tree in college.

He lined up in line and out wide at the college level, but he is just a decent run-blocker. He’s made strides in that department as his career went on, and looked pretty good in a few plays in the Iowa game above. He is a tweener tight end prospect who will have plenty of growing pains transitioning to the pros.

For someone as big and strong as he is, he isn’t impressive after the catch. That’s a critical characteristic of an NFL tight end that Johnson hasn’t seemed to master yet. He averaged 5 YAC/reception last season, tied for 101st amongst all tight ends with more than 25 targets in college football.

His best attribute is his contested catch rate. He succeeded last year on 75% of contested catch opportunities, but he only numbered four of those.

Pro Football Focus gave Johnson a middle-of-the-pack receiving grade of 67.2 and a run-blocking grade of 55.9.

The Measurables

Image courtesy of NFL.com.

Theo Johnson is a TE prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.92 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 10 out of 1197 TE from 1987 to 2024.

Johnson's Combine performance wasn't bested this offseason.https://t.co/sVZgB7wazA pic.twitter.com/5c7druhAES

— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 7, 2024

Johnson’s measurables are nothing short of elite. He dominated the NFL Combine in Indianapolis. Athleticism is a crucial trait for tight end success, especially in fantasy football. With a profile like this, an NFL team will see a blank slate that they can hope to mold into a future pass-catching stud at the position.

He ran a 4.57-second 40-yard dash at 6’6” and 259 lbs. That gives him a 97th percentile speed score. The 10-yard split in 1.55 seconds was impressive, along with his 4.19-second shuttle. He’s fast, explosive, agile and huge. Simple as that. The formula is there for him to be a really good fantasy football tight end, it’s simply the technique that needs to be sharpened up.

Theo Johnson just turned in one of the top-10 best-ever Combine performances from a TE

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But the rest of his analytics profile is really bad. Can someone tell me why he's not just "fancy Zack Kuntz"? pic.twitter.com/pSZyWt5FpO

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 2, 2024

In the drills, he did pretty well. He reached a speed of over 20 mph in a clean-looking gauntlet drill. His routes looked clean, albeit a bit slow, and he made some tough-looking catches on some poorly thrown balls. The NFL Network coverage pointed out that Johnson’s testing numbers were nearly identical to that of Jimmy Graham.

Theo Johnson vs. Jimmy Graham #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/l1ac8tcs4R

— WBG84 (@WBG84) April 13, 2024

The Value

Image courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.

This tight end class is severely top-heavy. After Brock Bowers, there is a massive dropoff to Ja’Tavion Sanders, and then another big dropoff to the rest of the class. With Johnson’s size, speed and moldability, he’s become a popular mock draft pick for the number three tight end spot. He has cracked the top 100 picks on Mock Draft Database and is rising up the board. He’s currently the fourth-ranked tight end on that site, behind Bowers, Sanders and Cade Stover. If he ends up being a day-two pick, the NFL team that drafts him will be pot-committed to developing him into an NFL tight end. If he does get that draft capital, Johnson will be an intriguing stash-and-hope prospect in deep dynasty leagues.

Data from DLF One Quarterback ADP

He’s currently the 29th tight end selected in DLF Startup Dynasty drafts, 220th overall. He’s being valued just after Hunter Henry and Darren Waller. The next tight end in ADP is Greg Dulcich, but there’s a big drop-off between the two from 220 to 243 overall. He’s the fourth rookie being drafted in those startup drafts, behind Bowers, Sanders and Ben Sinnott. His rookie draft ADP is 46th overall, a late fourth-round pick and the fifth tight end selected. The DLF Rookie Rankings slot him in as the sixth-ranked tight end. He’s only listed on two rankers’ boards out of a possible eight.

Dynasty Outlook

The range of possible outcomes for Theo Johnson is absolutely massive. An NFL team will need to project his future as an NFL player when they draft him. They’ll be hoping they’re taking Jimmy Graham, a raw tight end they can mold into a potential Hall of Fame player. But, they could be drafting a dud who never polishes his game to his potential.

If Johnson gets the draft capital that he’s currently projected to receive, then his rookie draft ADP should rise up into the early or middle fourth round, and I believe he’ll be a good value there. If you’re going to use one of your late rookie draft picks on a tight end, Johnson could be the best option to scoop up. Hopefully you’re drafting him in a league that has a taxi squad or deep rosters where you can exhibit the same patience an NFL team will need to practice.

His lack of production in college is concerning, but he has shared a tight end with some uber-talented players. Pat Freiermuth and Brenton Strange are both second-round picks. Tyler Warren should be at least a day-two pick when he goes pro as well. With draft capital, coaching and opportunity, Johnson’s ceiling could be as high as anyone else in this draft other than Brock Bowers.