After a record-breaking 13 straight offensive players came off of the board, Round 1 was one of the biggest nights of fantasy football impact in NFL Draft history.
The league is starving for quarterbacks as six passers went in the opening 12 selections, marking another first draft first. The top-3 picks were chalk – but that didn’t last long. The Falcons and Broncos broke the draft wide open with their QB choices.
Let’s break down the fantasy impact on these incoming rookies.
Great Landing Spots
Caleb Williams
We’ve known that Williams was going to Chicago for months now. The only question is what jersey number he’d wear (#18 – elite choice).
The history of rookie passers finishing as top fantasy football scorers in their first season is spotty and heavily connected to draft capital.
Since 2000, a total of 84 rookie QBs have started in at least six games. Out of that group, only 15 have scored more than 17.0 fantasy points per game in their rookie season alone.
With 17 FPG, that’s enough to be in the conversation as a solid weekly starter/streamer in fantasy.
Those previous 15 QBs to score over 17 FPG in their rookie season are Deshaun Watson (24.1 FPG), Cam Newton (23.1), Justin Herbert (22.2), Robert Griffin (21.2), CJ Stroud (18.3), Dak Prescott (17.9), Kyler Murray (17.8), Marcus Mariota (17.5), Russell Wilson (17.4), Joe Burrow (17.4), Josh Allen (17.3), Andrew Luck (17.2), Baker Mayfield (17.2), Jameis Winston (17.2), and Marc Bulger (17.1).
In this sample, 12 of these 15 quarterbacks are former first-round picks—nine of which were picked either #1 or #2 overall. The rookie quarterbacks who produce early are usually drafted early, like Williams.
Most importantly, Williams has one of the best landing spots of any rookie QB ever with this receiver corps. Chicago now has arguably the best wide receiver group in the league, with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze out wide and Keenan Allen patrolling the slot. Wheels up.
Xavier Worthy
After winning back-to-back Super Bowls with Hall-of-Famer Travis Kelce and a group of misfit parts at wide receiver, the last thing the league needed was Patrick Mahomes getting Xavier Worthy. The Chiefs have finally figured out their holes at receiver and now have a sick group of Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, and Worthy to mix and match inside and outside.
Worthy might be the happiest receiver on earth after he dealt with horrific QB play from Quinn Ewers last year at Texas. CBS Sports’ Jacob Gibbs noted on Twitter that an unreal 40% (!!) of Worthy’s deep targets (15 or more air yards) were off target last season, according to PFF’s tracking.
Nearly 10% of Mahomes' passes of 15+ yards were dropped last season, according to Fantasy Points Data (easily a league-high).
Unfortunately, Brett Whitefield found similar deficiencies in Worthy’s tape as he struggled with tracking the ball deep downfield. The speed will break your neck, but he’ll have to work on his hands so that he’s not a repeat of Mecole Hardman or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Chiefs clearly have a type.
Worthy was already getting steamed up fantasy boards and I expect that he’ll be pushed into the 70-80s overall in best ball drafts with Rice’s likely suspension looming.
JJ McCarthy
The Vikings didn’t even have to move up far to get their man. A small, one spot move up with the Jets was all that they needed. Minnesota has been heavily linked to JJ McCarthy all offseason. It’s a perfect marriage of talent and system with HC Kevin O’Connell. You also can’t really ask for a better group of weapons as a rookie QB – unless you’re Caleb Williams.
Justin Jefferson came back from a midseason hamstring injury and dropped a casual 30/476/2 receiving (on 44 targets) in four games with Nick Mullens last year. It’s a small sample size, but Jefferson’s efficiency did not dip at all last year. He averaged 3.03 YPRR (157 routes) with Mullens and 2.99 YPPR (191 routes) when Kirk Cousins was under center.
This is after Jefferson ripped up the league for 128/1809/8 receiving (2.77 YPRR) the year prior.
Jefferson’s separation skills and ability to blow past defenders on the perimeter are a quarterback’s dream. Especially once TJ Hockenson returns from his ACL injury, the Vikings have a chance to field another highly productive passing season. Minnesota led the NFL in passing yards (4,700) last season and that was with Cousins missing half of the year.
McCarthy’s fantasy ceiling is similar to Cousins – 4,000+ yards and 30+ passing TDs with the added bonus of his plus mobility.
Solid Landing Spots
Jayden Daniels
At long last, Terry McLaurin’s dynasty fantasy managers can rejoice. The Commanders finally have a QB that can threaten the defense downfield.
Daniels' projection for fantasy football is incredibly straightforward – he’s a prolific runner. In his final year at LSU, Daniels rushed for an incredible 1,134 yards and threw for 40 TDs in just 12 games. It led to one of the highest scoring seasons in college history.
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) March 14, 2024Most Fantasy Points per Game by NCAA QB
+ Since 2016, Power-5 Only1. Lamar Jackson, 2016 (41.3)
2. JAYDEN DANIELS, 2023 (40.0)
3. Lamar Jackson, 2017 (38.4)
4. Patrick Mahomes, 2019 (38.2)
5. Jalen Hurts, 2019 (36.3)
6. Joe Burrow, 2019 (35.7)
7. Kyler Murray, 2018 (35.4)
While he still has to prove that he can adapt his scheme and not rely too much on the RPO/Horizontal Raid, Commanders new OC Kliff Kingsbury will have plenty of experience to draw from in designing an offense around Daniels’ legs. That much is certain.
In SuperFlex rookie dynasty drafts, Jayden Daniels is my #3 pick after Williams and Harrison Jr. His angle-erasing speed and make-you-miss ability in the open field has all of the makings of a consistently high-upside QB that we’ve looked for in fantasy like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Anthony Richardson, and Kyler Murray. At his ceiling, Daniels could have a Lamar Jackson-type rushing impact for fantasy.
Bo Nix
Denver has a ton of holes on their roster, but Nix landed in a near-ideal coaching situation. The Broncos have a lot of building to do – just Courtland Sutton isn’t enough. However, HC Sean Payton has routinely gotten the best out of his quarterbacks throughout the years.
Russell Wilson was an awful fit for this offense, and yet he still managed to finish 10th in fantasy points scored per dropback (0.51) last season.
Just two years ago, the Saints got a combined 3,437 yards and 29 TDs out of Trevor Siemian, Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book. That offense was clearly held back by their quarterbacks and still finished a respectable 21st in points scored per drive.
Rome Odunze
This is a solid — and not great — spot for Odunze only because he’ll be competing for targets with D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. Being tied to Caleb Williams for the next four seasons is incredible, though. It’s a tough balance, and one that dynasty managers might have to wait just a bit to reap the benefits.
In case you need a reminder, both Moore and Allen were fantasy WR1 options last season. Moore was almost unstoppable when he got solid QB play from former starter Justin Fields. In 13 starts with Fields, Moore put up 16.4 Half-PPR FPG – which would have made him the WR6 behind WR5 Keenan Allen (17.0 FPG).
Odunze has all of the makings of a receiver who earns 140 targets in the future, but we’re likely going to have to wait a year or two. It’s possible that he’s good enough to emerge as the #1 target as a rookie, but he’ll have a brutally tough fight.
Moore has earned at least 24% of his team’s targets in three straight seasons, while Allen saw 23%, 21%, and 31% (last year) of the Chargers’ targets from 2021-23.
Brian Thomas
After missing out on re-signing Calvin Ridley during free agency, the Jaguars moved back with the Vikings in the draft from #17 to #23 overall and still landed their target in Thomas. Jacksonville picked up three extra picks in the move back — a 2025 third and fourth, along with the Vikings' fifth-rounder this year.
Thomas profiles as the Jaguars vertical X-receiver with his prototypical size (6’3”, 210lbs) and speed (4.33 jets). After playing behind Malik Nabers and Kayshon Boutte as a sophom*ore, Thomas went off for 68/1177/17 receiving in his final year at LSU.
However, there are some concerns in Thomas’ profile that our Scott Barrett expertly noted. Nearly 43% of Thomas’ 1,177 receiving yards last season came on one route (Go). Is he just a vertical deep threat, or is there more to uncover? He turns 22 in October.
At the very least, the Jaguars have done a great job finding a group of receivers with complementary skill sets. Thomas is a burner who will take the top off of the defense, while Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are target monsters in the middle of the field.
Ricky Pearsall
This will be a perfect landing spot if the 49ers trade one of Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk. If San Francisco keeps the band together for one more run in 2024, then Pearsall will be relegated to the #5 target behind Samuel, Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey.
Pearsall going to San Francisco is great for his dynasty stock, and he deserves a big bump in your rookie rankings. He was already a Fantasy Points favorite with Brett Whitefield’s charge.
— Brett Whitefield (@BGWhitefield) February 24, 2024Ricky Pearsall is a nasty, sophisticated route runner. He has a plethora of tools to pair with fantastic explosiveness in and out of his breaks.
Pre-combine he scores inside my top-5 WRs of the class.
Here’s a solid minute of him slaying younglings like Darth Vader. pic.twitter.com/GMOCzRYB9O
Mid Landing Spots
Drake Maye
This has everything to do with the current state of the Patriots' weaponry and offensive line. With their remaining picks, New England will try to surround their new quarterback with quality receivers and blocking.
Right now, their veteran group isn’t going to cut it. Kendrick Bourne is a solid starter but is coming off an ACL tear. K.J. Osborn is a WR3 at best. Demario Douglas profiles as the top target right now and had some success across nine starts from Weeks 7-18, with 39/418/0 receiving, but he’s a slot-only receiver. Without any TD juice, Douglas only managed to score as the WR54 in Half-PPR per game scoring across the final 12 weeks of the regular season.
Maye has a little bit of underrated upside as a runner, which will hopefully help boost him up for our game. He ran for over 1,100 yards and scored 16 rushing TDs across 26 starts in his final two years at UNC and trailed only Jayden Daniels in gains of 10 or more yards on the ground in this span. I expect that Maye will be drafted in the 150-160 overall range in summer best ball drafts as the rookie tries to lift the Patriots rebuilding roster.
At the very least, Maye lands with a very experienced offensive coordinator. New Patriots OC Alex Van Pelt spent the last four seasons as the Browns OC under Kevin Stefanski, and he was previously a QBs coach from 2008-2019 with the Bills, Buccaneers, Packers, and Bengals. Jacoby Brissett is a great veteran sounding board, too.
Malik Nabers
Nabers has an alpha-WR1 profile after he broke out for 72/1017/3 (in 14 games) as a sophom*ore at LSU and went off for 89/1569/14 (in 13 games) last season. He sets up as the clear #1 target for the Giants with only Wan’Dale Robinson and Darius Slayton around to compete for looks. TE Darren Waller quiet quit last season, and he might not be back for 2024 as he mulls retirement.
There are no questions about Nabers' talent. He was a dominant producer in the SEC and an absolute freak after the catch, but it’s really hard to get overly excited here with Daniel Jones back under center. Nabers was getting selected as early as 28-30 overall in early best ball drafts this spring, and I expect that price will cool off into the summer.
With the addition of Nabers, the hope is that Jones takes a big step forward. The Giants desperately need Nabers to stretch the field. Daniel Jones threw deep — over 20 yards in air — on a league-low 6.9% of his pass attempts last season. That figure has to rise considerably if we’re going to get a solid ceiling out of Nabers in fantasy. I’ll have him ranked as a volume-based WR2.
Bad Landing Spots
Brock Bowers
The Raiders got a great value, with Bowers falling to them at #13 overall, but this is a downright horrific landing spot for the rookie. He’s going to fall multiple rounds in season-long fantasy after his ADP was near 70 overall in spring best ball contests on Underdog.
The Raiders are going into the season with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew, which means they will likely lean on the run game again. After new HC Antonio Pierce took over in Week 9, Vegas was the 9th-most run-heavy offense with a +1.5% run rate over expectation.
When the Raiders did throw the ball last season, it was not exactly efficient. O’Connell averaged a pedestrian 6.6 YPA on throws from a clean pocket – which ranked 37th out of 45 qualifying QBs. For reference, Gardner Minshew was just a step above O’Connell with 6.9 clean pocket YPA (32nd). Perfectly league average was Dak Prescott with 7.4 clean pocket YPA.
In addition to all of this, Bowers will have to compete for targets with one of the best wide receivers of all time, Davante Adams, and he’ll fight Michael Mayer for playing time at tight end.
The Raiders now have an unbelievable set of weapons with Adams, Bowers, Mayer, and the versatile Jakobi Meyers – but a gigantic hole at QB. Hopefully, O’Connell can take a massive second-year leap, or Minshew can steady the ship.
Xavier Legette
Just one year after spending an early pick on a receiver with a risky profile in Jonathan Mingo (#39 overall), the Panthers ran it back with South Carolina’s Legette. Just like with Mingo, Carolina is getting a very athletic WR with prototypical size who didn’t produce much in college.
Mingo topped out with 51/861/5 receiving in his final season at Ole Miss after never eclipsing 400 yards as a freshman-junior. He turned his 85 targets into 418 yards and 0 TDs as a rookie, and ranked 79th-of-81 WRs by yards per route run (0.81).
Legette broke out in his fifth year at South Carolina for 71/1255/7 receiving after failing to have more than 200 yards in any season as a freshman-senior. Analytically, Legette is a massive outlier with this draft capital. He’s the only WR to be selected in the first round that has failed to produce at least 1.90 yards per route run since at least 2017 (Legette: 1.75 YPRR – H/T Football Insights).
The hope is that Bryce Young can redeem himself in his second season and that Legette succeeds on a trajectory similar to Rashee Rice's last year. The Panthers can start “small” with shallow routes near the line of scrimmage and screens early in the year and hope to build out Legette’s route tree as the season progresses.
Legette will compete with Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen for targets as a rookie, which limits his ceiling. Between the red flags in his profile, questions surrounding Bryce Young, and target competition – I will let others draft Legette in fantasy.
Michael Penix Jr.
Atlanta stunned the NFL world by taking Penix at #8 overall after backing up a Brinks truck to Kirk Cousins’ house this offseason. The Falcons owe Cousins a guaranteed $90M over the next two seasons, but they’re apparently already looking toward the future with Penix. Despite the fact that he turns 24 years old in May and has a long injury history, GM Terry Fontenot was clearly enamored with his long-term potential behind Cousins.
The Falcons desperately need pass rushers – that is for sure. However, their roster is very much ready to win. The division remains wide open, too. Tampa just took it last year. Going all-in around Cousins makes more sense in the short run, but the bottom line is that the NFL is way higher on Penix than the media. The Raiders, Seahawks, and Saints were all reportedly trying to trade into the top 10 to get him. The Falcons were taking no chances on a trade back.
The Falcons spent the last two seasons in QB hell with budget options in Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota and decided… no more.
Obviously, Penix’s 2024 fantasy outlook is completely wiped out. There is a chance that Atlanta got some bad news about Cousins’ injured Achilles this offseason, but barring another injury, the rookie will be on the bench. I’d consider Penix no earlier than the late-2nd round of rookie dynasty drafts. If you take him, you’re going to have to project zero production for potentially two years.
